The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver
5 mins
3 key insights
Visual, audio & text
The Signal And The Noise explains why so many predictions end up being wrong, and how statisticians, politicians, and meteorologists fall prey to masses of data.
The Signal and the Noise
The Signal and the Noise
by Nate Silver
Overview
Nate Silver predicted the voting outcome of 49 out of 50 US states correctly in 2008 and then nailed all 50 in 2012. Since revealing his identity in public and making those predictions, his popularity - and that of his blog, FiveThirtyEight, where he writes about his predictions - has exploded.
Eventually, the blog was acquired by ESPN, and Silver was made editor in chief. In The Signal And The Noise, an instant New York Times bestseller, he explains why so many predictions fail, and how we can use a few tools and principles to make better calls about the future.
Favorite quote
We need to stop and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things - and we aren't very good at it.
- Nate Silver
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